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Market summary – Review of Q1 2026

Date: 01 May 2026

Suitable for customers and investors

3 minute read

Our market summary

The first three months of 2026 proved challenging for investors, with markets shaped by a combination of geopolitical conflict, shifting interest rate expectations, and concerns about inflation. Escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted global energy supplies, pushing oil prices sharply higher and unsettling risk sentiment. As a result, global equity markets were down by 1.2%, while commodities were the standout performer. Fixed income markets were volatile, as higher energy prices reignited fears that inflation may remain elevated for longer, causing investors to reassess the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Against this backdrop, performance varied notably by region and asset class.

Equity markets

US

US equities declined by 2.6% over the quarter. Early optimism, driven by solid economic data and strong corporate earnings, faded as concerns grew about interest rates staying higher for longer. Tech stocks were a key drag, particularly software companies, as investors questioned the long-term impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on business models. Rising oil prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty further weighed on market sentiment later in the quarter.

Europe

European equities fell by 2.1% as the Middle East conflict intensified. Higher energy prices created concerns about inflation and economic growth, particularly given Europe’s reliance on energy imports. While energy stocks performed strongly, economically sensitive sectors such as consumer discretionary struggled. Technology performance was mixed, with software stocks under pressure, partly offset by more resilient hardware and semiconductor companies.

UK

UK equities were more resilient than many global peers and were up 2.8% over the quarter. The market benefited from its heavy exposure to energy and commodity companies, which gained from rising oil and gas prices. A weaker pound also supported internationally focused firms. However, domestically oriented mid-cap companies underperformed, reflecting concerns about economic growth. Tech and consumer-focused sectors were among the weakest areas.

Emerging markets

UK equities were more resilient than many global peers and were up 2.8% over the quarter. The market benefited from its heavy exposure to energy and commodity companies, which gained from rising oil and gas prices. A weaker pound also supported internationally focused firms. However, domestically oriented mid-cap companies underperformed, reflecting concerns about economic growth. Tech and consumer-focused sectors were among the weakest areas.

Emerging markets

Bond markets were volatile and generally weak during the quarter. Rising energy prices increased concerns about inflation, leading investors to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts and, in some cases, price in potential increases. Government bond prices fell across major markets, with UK and European bonds particularly affected. US Treasuries were more resilient, helped by the US being a net energy exporter and signs of a softening labour market.

Monthly market summary - Market returns

Source: Quilter and Morningstar as at 31 March 2026. Total return, percentage growth over period 31 December 2025 to 31 March 2026. The performance shown for each equity market is represented by an appropriate MSCI Index. US Treasuries are represented by the ICE BofA US Treasury (GBP Hedged) Index, gilts by the ICE BofA UK Gilt Index, global corporate bonds by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate (GBP Hedged) Index, and sterling corporate bonds by the ICE BofA Sterling Corporate Index.

The performance figures shown refer to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Important Information

The value of investments can fall as well as rise. You might get back less than you invested.

This communication is issued by Quilter, a trading name of Quilter Investment Platform Limited.

Approver: Quilter April 2026

QIP 24035/25/16538

Marcus Brookes

Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Marcus is both the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Quilter Investors. Marcus joined Quilter Investors in December 2021 from Schroders Personal Wealth, where he also held the role of Chief Investment Officer. Marcus has considerable investment management experience with a deep understanding of the multi-asset sector, having managed multi-manager fund ranges for more than 25 years at Schroders, Cazenove Capital, Gartmore, and Insight Investments.