Looking ahead
If we look forward to the portfolios’ next financial year, 1 May 2024 to 30 April 2025, our income forecasts are 3.5p to 3.9p per share for the Monthly Income Portfolio and 3.6p to 4.0p pence per share for the Monthly Income and Growth Portfolio. This equates to projected yields as at 1 May 2025 of 3.8-4.2% and 3.5-3.9%, respectively.
For the Monthly Income Portfolio, we have been able to nudge the top of the forecast range higher than 2024-25 due to the modest growth in dividends expected from equity holdings. Fixed Income and equities are a similar weight in the Monthly Income Portfolio – around 40-45% each – so the lacklustre income growth expected from bonds is part of the reason we can only forecast a slight increase in the range.
Conversely, the Monthly Income and Growth Portfolio sees an increase of 0.2p per share to both the lower and upper bounds of the projected range. This is in line with the portfolio’s greater weighting in equities.
Expected drivers of growth
We expect our equity holdings to drive income growth over the coming financial year, particularly in Japan, with the UK and Europe also contributing. However, we expect emerging market equities to see their income distributions decline.
We do not foresee meaningful increases in distributions from our fixed income holdings. Central banks are in the mist of rate cutting cycles, which typically puts downward pressure on yields. Credit spreads are also tight so there is not much pickup on offer for taking on additional corporate default risk. This is driven by strong corporate fundamentals, so we do not foresee a significant spread widening event. However, were this to occur it would ultimately increase the income available from these bonds, although investors would experience capital losses in the meantime.