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A new economic direction for Britain?

Date: 30 September 2026

5 minute read

Summary

This week's blog explores whether Prime Minister Andy Burnham's vision for a more active state could mark a significant shift in Britain's economic direction. Rather than focusing on short-term political debates, it considers how policies on housing, social care, infrastructure and closer ties with Europe could address long-standing structural challenges, boost productivity and support stronger long-term economic growth. The key question for investors is whether these reforms can improve the UK's economic potential without creating persistent inflationary pressures?

A new economic direction for Britain?

Party conference speeches are often quickly forgotten by investors. Markets tend to focus on central banks, inflation data and corporate earnings rather than political rhetoric. However, Andy Burnham's first Labour Party conference speech as Prime Minister may prove more significant than many investors initially assume.

What stood out was not any individual policy announcement, but the broader vision being presented. Whether discussing social care, housing, energy, water, or Britain's future relationship with Europe, the common thread was a greater role for the state in addressing some of the structural challenges that have weighed on the UK's economic performance over recent decades.

Don't look back in anger

Perhaps the most market-relevant comments concerned Britain's future relationship with Europe. Burnham stated that Brexit has done "more harm than good" and suggested there is scope to develop a closer economic relationship with the European Union in future.

Investors have little interest in relitigating the arguments of the past decade. The more important question is whether closer economic ties could improve trade flows, encourage investment and support productivity growth. The UK's productivity performance has been disappointing for many years, and anything that improves the movement of goods, services, capital or labour could have meaningful implications for long-term growth.

Whatever

Whether investors agree or disagree with Burnham's policies politically is, in many respects, irrelevant. Markets ultimately care about outcomes rather than ideology. One of the most significant announcements was the creation of a National Care Service, funded in part through reforms to the pensions triple lock. While many will view this through a political or social lens, investors may wish to consider the economic implications.

A more comprehensive care system could enable more people to remain in, or return to, the workforce rather than undertaking informal caring responsibilities. If successful, this could increase labour market participation, boost economic output and potentially improve the country's long-term growth trajectory.

Housing reform may offer similar benefits. High housing costs are often viewed as a social challenge, but they can also restrict labour mobility, reduce disposable incomes and weigh on economic dynamism. Policies that increase housing supply may therefore have wider economic benefits than many investors initially appreciate.

Roll with it

This brings us to the key question for financial markets. Many investors instinctively associate greater state involvement and higher public spending with higher inflation and higher interest rates. In the short term, markets may well focus on the fiscal costs associated with these proposals.

However, the longer-term picture is more nuanced. The crucial distinction is between spending that boosts demand and investment that expands supply. If investment in housing, infrastructure, energy systems and labour market participation genuinely increases the productive capacity of the economy, then stronger growth need not necessarily be accompanied by persistently higher inflation.

This is likely to be one of the key debates in UK markets over the coming years.

Some might say

Some might say that greater government involvement risks reducing economic efficiency and increasing pressure on public finances. Others would argue that decades of underinvestment in housing, infrastructure and public services have contributed to many of the challenges facing the UK economy today. Both perspectives have merit. The reality is that investors will ultimately judge these policies not by their intentions, but by their outcomes.

Infrastructure-related businesses, engineering firms and some domestically focused companies could benefit from increased investment and stronger economic activity. Equally, sectors exposed to greater government intervention may face a more uncertain regulatory environment.

Live forever

Investors can often become preoccupied with the next inflation reading, central bank decision or quarter's earnings results. Andy Burnham's conference speech was notable because it focused on a much longer horizon.

Rather than discussing the next six months, it sought to address how Britain might look over the next decade. Whether the proposed reforms succeed remains uncertain, but they represent an attempt to tackle some of the structural weaknesses that have constrained the UK's growth potential for many years.

For advisers, the key takeaway is not to view the speech purely as a political event. Markets will eventually decide whether these policies are capable of improving productivity, increasing labour supply and supporting long-term economic growth. If investors become convinced that Britain's future economic potential is improving, the most significant market impact may ultimately come not from the size of government spending, but from a reassessment of the country's long-term growth prospects.

And that could prove far more important than the politics of the moment.

Key takeaways

  1. Markets care about outcomes, not politics - Investors are less concerned with ideology and more interested in whether government policies can improve productivity, labour supply and economic growth.

  2. Structural reform could support long-term growth - Measures such as housing reform, a National Care Service and closer economic ties with Europe could help address some of the UK's long-standing economic weaknesses.

  3. The growth vs inflation debate will be crucial - If increased public investment expands the economy's productive capacity, stronger growth may not necessarily lead to persistently higher inflation or interest rates, making this a key issue for markets in the years ahead.

Ian Jensen-Humphreys

Portfolio Manager

Ian is a portfolio manager of the Quilter Investors Cirilium and Creation Portfolios. Ian joined Quilter Investors in March 2020 from Seven Investment Management (7IM), where he was deputy chief investment officer. Ian also spent 15 years at Goldman Sachs in risk management and portfolio hedging strategies.

Ian is a CFA charterholder and has a degree in Physics from the University of Oxford.