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Our market summary
April was a strong month for investors, with global markets up 7.0% despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Concerns around the Middle East, including disruption to energy supplies and higher oil prices, remained in focus. However, markets looked through these risks, supported by improving corporate earnings and growing confidence in the global economy. A key driver of returns was renewed enthusiasm for technology and artificial intelligence (AI), which led a broad ‘risk-on’ rally. Investors shifted back into growth assets, particularly those linked to AI infrastructure and data centres. While equities performed strongly across most regions, bond markets were more mixed. Rising inflation expectations and higher oil prices created uncertainty around interest rates, influencing returns across fixed income.
US
US equities delivered a return of 10.5% in US dollar terms in April, supported by a combination of robust earnings and continued investor enthusiasm for AI-related companies. However, due to the weakness of the dollar this translated to a smaller return of 7.2% for sterling-based investors. Technology and communication services stocks led the rally, particularly large companies involved in semiconductors and data infrastructure. These firms benefited from expectations of sustained demand linked to AI investment and digital expansion. Corporate earnings also played an important role. A high proportion of companies exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the economic outlook. Financials and industrials also contributed positively, supported by resilient consumer demand and higher investor risk appetite.
Europe
European equities rose by 4.7% during April, supported by improved sentiment early in the month following ceasefire discussions in the Middle East. Investors also responded positively to signs of increased manufacturing activity. Cyclical sectors performed well. Industrials and capital goods companies benefited from stronger manufacturing trends, while banks gained on expectations of higher interest rates and improved profitability. However, performance was uneven across different sectors. Technology hardware companies rose on stronger demand, but software and communication services lagged, reflecting weaker spending and ongoing uncertainty. Despite positive returns overall, the economic backdrop remained weak, with low growth and contracting business activity. Rising energy prices and ongoing uncertainty also continued to weigh on the outlook.
UK
UK equities lagged global markets in April, delivering a more modest return of 2.7%. The UK stock market underperformed other developed markets, reflecting its sector makeup and limited exposure to high-growth technology companies. Performance across sectors was mixed. Banks were a bright spot, benefiting from a supportive interest rate environment and resilient profitability. Technology hardware companies also performed well, supported by global demand linked to AI investment. However, traditionally defensive sectors such as energy, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals lagged. Oil and gas companies also declined due to profit-taking, despite higher oil prices, while investors moved away from defensive areas into growth opportunities. Inflation remained elevated, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer.
Japan
Japanese equities posted solid gains of 5.9% in April, recovering from the weakness seen in March. Market performance was supported by improving sentiment around geopolitical developments and a broader recovery in global risk appetite. AI-related companies again led returns, reflecting strong demand and positive long-term growth expectations. However, Japan’s gains were more moderate compared with other regions, partly due to its lower direct exposure to the global AI supply chain. Domestic factors also influenced performance. The Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged but signalled a more cautious stance on inflation, which helped support financial stocks.
Emerging markets
Emerging market equities was the standout performer in April, delivering a return of 11.3% and outperforming developed markets. The rally was driven primarily by Asian markets, particularly Taiwan and South Korea. These countries benefited from their central role in the global AI supply chain. Semiconductor manufacturers and technology exporters saw significant gains, supported by strong earnings and continued investment in data centres and digital infrastructure. However, performance was uneven across regions. Countries with less exposure to AI or greater sensitivity to energy prices delivered more modest returns.
Fixed income
Bond markets experienced a more challenging and volatile month compared with equities. Rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions led to increased inflation concerns, which in turn pushed bond yields higher. Government bonds struggled as expectations for interest rate cuts were pushed back, and in some cases replaced by expectations of further rate increases. This resulted in negative or muted returns across several major markets. In contrast, corporate bonds performed relatively well. Strong economic conditions and positive investor sentiment supported credit markets, with credit spreads tightening over the month. Higher-yielding segments, including emerging market debt and high-yield bonds, were among the stronger performers.
Source: Quilter as at 30 April 2026. Total return, percentage growth over period 31 March 2026 to 30 April 2026. Equities are represented by the appropriate MSCI index, the Magnificent Seven is represented by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, UK gilts is represented by the ICE BofA UK Gilt Index, US Treasuries is represented by the ICE BofA US Treasury (GBP Hedged) Index, global government bonds is represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Government - Treasuries (GBP Hedged) Index, and global corporate bonds is represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate - Corporate (GBP Hedged) Index.
Performance review
April began with news of a ceasefire in the Middle East prompting markets to pivot – rallying back to all-time highs buoyed by renewed appetite for AI hyperscalers and AI beneficiaries. The rally in April was broad across regions, market cap, and style despite the economic fallout from the disruption to trade through the Straits of Hormuz continuing to build. Fixed income returns were more mixed as government bond yields rose on concerns of the upside risks to inflation from elevated oil prices, while the risk on sentiment in equity markets filtered through to corporate credit as spreads tightened. Against this backdrop, the portfolios delivered a positive return ranging from 1.5% at risk level 3 to 7.0% at risk level 10.
The performance figures shown refer to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Investment outlook
It remains difficult to look past the situation in the Middle East. While a ceasefire has broadly held since April, supply disruption persists, keeping oil markets tight and inventories under pressure. This complicates both the outlook for growth, as well as inflation. Elevated energy prices are likely to keep central banks cautious and markets sensitive to developments.
The value of alternatives
The diversification benefits seen earlier in the year have been harder to realise more recently, as geopolitical risk has driven a more correlated move across asset classes. We continue to see the value in having other diversifiers within the portfolios, with our liquid alternatives allocation at an all-time high.
Political fragmentation
Closer to home, the UK political backdrop has become more uncertain following Labour’s losses at the local elections in May. The results highlighted a further rise in smaller parties, pointing to a more fragmented political landscape. Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party has also come under pressure and a leadership battle has commenced.
More volatility possible
All this has already fed into markets, with gilt yields rising and political risk premium emerging. While some uncertainty was expected, there remains scope for further volatility as investors reassess potential leadership outcomes and the implications for fiscal policy.
Solutions
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Important Information
The value of investments can fall as well as rise. You might get back less than you invested.
This communication is issued by Quilter, a trading name of Quilter Investment Platform Limited and Quilter Life & Pensions Limited, who provide the WealthSelect Managed Portfolio Service.
Approver: Quilter May 2026
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